Globally, we are already in a period of rapid climate change, evidenced by fragmenting ice sheets, melting glaciers and warming seas.
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now around 400 parts per million, compared to 270 ppm before industrialisation, trapping more of the sun’s heat at the earth’s surface. There is now a strong likelihood of dramatic impacts on people and health, environment, infrastructure, and our economy during our children’s and grandchildren’s lifetimes.
© National Trust
Rise in temperatures
The government’s own scientific advisers are indicating a +4 degree Centigrade rise in average temperatures over pre-industrial levels by the end of this century could occur if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced. This is confirmed by the UK’s Climate Projections 2009.
A +4C rise could give southern England a climate not too different from parts of southern Portugal now. While this may sound attractive it would mean a radically different living and working environment and lifestyle to what we now have, and would most probably be accompanied by fresh-water shortages and disruption to food supplies, loss of many much-loved species of wildlife, and more damaging flooding and storm surges. If we are successful in limiting warming to +2C there will still be very significant change to accommodate.
The Trust needs to adapt
The Trust will need to adapt in ways that minimise risks and costs and sustain our conservation purpose and values for as long as possible. The new infrastructure we are investing in now for the long-term (buildings, woodlands, services, facilities) needs to be as ‘climate resilient’ and flexible as possible for the conditions it will encounter, as well as meeting our current needs. Other management practices concerning the natural and historic environment and public access can be changed more easily a little at a time as the climate evolves.
How the Trust is being impacted by climate change
Over the last eight years, we have been forced to make over 400 separate insurance claims for flood or storm damage, worth over £3.2 million. As we don’t claim for many minor incidents, the real total of occurrences is much higher.
The never-ending growing season
Dramatic changes in the speed with which some plants grow, and longer, warmer growing seasons have very important implications for the National Trust. Some plant species may find it difficult in modern climatic conditions, whilst others can thrive. The trend towards a longer growing season is already starting to demand year-round mowing and lawn care, raising maintenance costs in large gardens.
Flooding and erosion along National Trust coastline
We are the UK’s largest owner of accessible coastline, caring for nearly 10 per cent of the coastline of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. With sea level rise of up to 0.86m predicted over the next 75 years, we forecast that 608km of our coastal holdings could be affected by erosion over the next century. Already, 126 of our coastal sites are at risk of flooding.
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