Action is needed now to enable Wales to adapt to rising sea levels - a new National Trust report highlights challenges ahead on Welsh coast.
A new report by the National Trust –'Shifting Shores' – shows that more than seventy percent of its coastline in Wales, much of it internationally renowned, could be severely affected by coastal erosion and flooding in the next 100 years. Over 143 miles (230 km) of the Welsh coast, or one in six miles, is now in the care of the National Trust.
With sea level rise of up to one metre predicted by 2100, and with climate change leading to more severe storm events, the National Trust Wales forecasts that three quarters of the coastline it looks after could lose land by erosion over the next century. 66 National Trust coastal sites - covering a total of 1572 hectares - are at risk of flooding and two sites are vulnerable to combined tidal and river flooding within the next century.
Central to the 'Shifting Shores' report is the Trust’s call for policy-makers to take urgent action to put in place coherent, long-term planning to address the massive impacts of future sea level rise and to enable affected communities, businesses and natural environments to adapt. The report draws on the Trust’s experience as the UK’s largest owner of coastline and highlights issues to be addressed by the Welsh Assembly Government’s plans for adapting to climate change, and forthcoming legislation for the marine environment.
Iwan Huws, National Trust Director for Wales, says:
'The challenges facing the National Trust provide a snapshot of how sea level rise and climate change will affect the whole of Wales. We have started to prepare for and adapt to the changing nature of the coastline, something that all levels of Government and Government Agencies in Wales should be focusing on now as part of a coordinated response to climate change.'
Sites managed by the National Trust which could be affected include the Stackpole Estate, location of the popular Bosherston Lily Ponds; Cemlyn lagoon on Anglesey, an important wildlife site; dune systems on the Gower peninsula and historic sea forts such as Dinas Dinlle near Llandwrog. Beaches, including the stunning Marloes Sands in Pembrokeshire, may disappear; whilst features like coastal footpaths will need to be moved inland.
Iwan Huws continues:
'Over the next few decades, flooding and erosion caused by sea level rise and more frequent storms appears inevitable. No one in Wales is more than 50 miles from the shore, and tourism is particularly dependent on our wonderful coast. Like King Canute, we can’t control the ocean and command it to retreat. Instead we must plan how to adapt to a future of advancing seas. The first step is to raise awareness of what is at stake'.
With the publication of 'Shifting Shores' the National Trust is emphasising that a fresh approach is needed to plan for and manage the future coast. It is highlighting some key areas where future strategies will need to focus:
- Raising public awareness and understanding -public information about where sea level rise is likely to impact needs to be improved. There is, for example, currently no mechanism for the public to find out if their home or business lies within a zone at risk of coastal erosion.
- Simplifying decision making - with numerous agencies and authorities involved in coastal management, achieving coherent and accountable solutions is difficult.
- Moving with the coast and the forces of nature - with the scale and pace of coastal change, a universal ‘hold the line’ approach through ever increasing sea defences is unaffordable and in many cases, counter-productive, creating even greater problems for communities and the environment elsewhere. Strategies need to be developed that better enable the coastline to accommodate natural coastal processes.
- Finding new financial mechanisms – innovation is needed in financial products, for example, insurance and compensation to enable vulnerable communities and the environment to adapt cost effectively and equitably.
Iwan Huws concluded:
'Our changing coastline demonstrates that the impacts of climate change are being felt here and now. This should strengthen the call to reduce our carbon footprint, but we also need to adapt to the changes underway and plan for the future of coastal communities. This means working with the forces of nature wherever possible and recognising the connections between land and sea.'
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