Figures announced on 18 June by Defra and the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCP09) reveal that the UK is currently on an emissions course that could result in a 2.5°C - 4.2°C rise in mean summer temperatures, with a staggering 40 per cent decrease in levels of summer rainfall predicted for southern areas, and a 33 per cent increase in winter rainfall predicted for western areas by 2080.*
These anticipated changes represent a massive challenge to all sectors of society, business and industry and has a huge impact on the work of the National Trust, Europe’s largest conservation charity.
The National Trust is advocating an approach which cuts global greenhouse gas emissions in conjunction with better management of emissions from soils through land use and taking adaptive action to prepare for the inevitable future changes to the UK climate.
Peter Nixon, Director of Conservation at the National Trust said:
'With the changes already anticipated we can expect a radically different living and working environment with, for example, major shortages of fresh water in some areas of the country. This could also lead to the loss of many of our much loved species of wildlife and more flooding and storm surges. We must prepare for these big changes now and at the same time get on with practical actions to reduce our emissions to prevent more severe impacts in the UK and for the rest of the world.'
Fiona Reynolds, Director General at the National Trust said:
'The changing climate is already having tremendous implications for the inspirational and beautiful properties and landscapes the National Trust cares for on behalf of the nation. This latest scientific evidence will spur us on with a new focus. It reinforces the need for us all to get involved with positive and practical action if we are to sustain these cherished places for future generations.
'Our approach is one of continual and wide-scale adaptation whether that involves taking measures to minimise the impact of heavier rainfall or flooding on historic buildings; planning long-term to live with and mitigate the effects of sea level rises and erosion along the coast; or changing planting schemes in our historic gardens and landscapes to cope with hotter, drier summers.
'These new projections also re-emphasise the pressing need to drastically reduce carbon emissions. We are already tackling this in a number of practical ways by implementing low-carbon energy solutions in our historic buildings and managing emissions from carbon embedded in soil on National Trust land.
'Our experience shows there are a tremendous number of practical things everyone can do to help minimise the extent of climate change. Better results will be achieved by working together, sharing information and by quickly acting on what we have already learnt. The new projections provide a compelling case for us all to get on with immediate and practical action.'
The National Trust has already been working hard to prepare for the impact of climate change on many of its properties and landscapes. Projects include;
- installation of a huge number of renewable energy projects at historic buildings to include; air source heat pumps, solar water heating systems and the replacement of oil powered heaters with biomass boilers. Energy and water saving projects are also being introduced at visitor centres and holiday cottages
- low carbon villages
- managing carbon in soils and vegetation
- adaptation planning in coastal zones
- adaptive planting so that gardens continue to thrive with plant species and varieties that can deal with a hotter and drier climate
- active promotion through Trust properties of local and seasonal food
- implementing new biosecurity standards to manage risks around plant pests and diseases associated with climate change
Taking one example - adaptive planting - Nymans Garden in Sussex is a National Trust model of ‘green’ gardening. Head gardener Ed Ikin and his team have been adapting the gardens over the last few years. He said:
'Instead of changing the planting schemes as our weather hots up, the garden is training plants to be drought resistant. Once the plants are in the ground they are inoculated with a special fungus and are then only watered a maximum of once a month between 6-8pm. This means the plants grow tight and lean making them more water efficient instead of being plump and needing water to survive. We are also using ‘greener’ gardening methods to include composting, rain-water harvesting and bio-fuel.'
*based on the ‘medium’ level emissions scenario as described in the Defra Climate Projections report.
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